Hello Mom and Dad, number 3

10-2-05


Continued


I think our TB office (and clinic) is near the market. So far in one hour this morning, three guns have been “tested.” That is the term for describing one, or two shots, with no return fire. I don’t like it. There is some anticipation after the shot, to hear if there is return shooting. Bangggggg, there is another. Those last two are very loud, and low sounding. They sounded bigger than an AK. Blaahhh, there is a goat just outside our office blaahhhing away. There have been more guns tested lately. People are saying that some people in the south are buying more guns, or servicing their guns, getting ready for the next fight in the south. (In the south there are two sub-clans that fight a lot. It is 4-5 hours drive south of our project in South Galcayo, but still, we get involved in the clash response. Anyway, for today, no in-depth analysis, just noting more gun testing than usual.


I’m reading about the occasional fighting in Mogadishu these days. The transitional government is trying to go there, and there are heated debates about how, and who supports whom. There is debating about what peacekeeping forces can come, and how many. Some people don’t want outside peacekeepers to come. (In fact, there are many stakeholders in the equation of power transfer, or sharing. Some risk loosing power they have already, and they will resist African Union (AU) or United Nations (UN) peacekeepers to come with forces to neutralize their interests in a no government state.)


Recent politics in summary (Note, this is my understanding of the issue, know that I believe it is much more complicated than this): Somalia Government recently formed in Nairobi, after 2 years of peace talks, and selecting members of parliament. To incorporate all powers-that-be, there are approximately 250 members of parliament. Additionally, there are approximately 50 Cabinet ministers, a Prime Minister and a President. Roughly, this represents Somalia. The thing is, they are staying in Kenya, until the situation back in Mogadishu is stable enough to return to Somalia, and Mogadishu, as it is the capital.

It is a little more complicated though. The President and many other ministers aren’t liked in Mogadishu. As such, he has called for the help from foreign peacekeepers to intervene. Some governments have agreed to send troops, namely Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Yemen, Sudan and Uganda. Sounds fair enough, if things aren’t stable in the capital, send troops. But… it is a little more complicated than that.


The French, Italian and British divided Somalia up when they colonized it. The French had Djibouti, and allowed it to be its own country when the French pulled out. The British had three colonies of Somalia, and they separated them, giving one to Somalia, (in the north, called Somaliland). Another to the south, called the Ogadan, they gave to Ethiopia. And the one further south, they gave to Kenya. As for the Italians, they had the east coast portions, and left them to the Somalis. Looking how this influences today, well, Somalia has wanted its portion back from Ethiopia, for quite some time. Ethiopia has backed some militias in Somalia, in return for keeping it’s portion of Somalia (that is bridging many links together and summarizing it, but many people believe that is the link). It is more complicated than that, but that may be enough to know that with Ethiopian troops coming to Somalia to back their buddy the current President, (as they backed him when he was a struggling militia leader) there are very biased interests, (for example Ethiopia keeping its portion of Ethiopia) and there is very strong opposition to this foreign involvement.


If that isn’t complicated enough, let’s continue. There are memories of other international peacekeeping forces “helping out”. The last, and most famous, was in Mogadishu in 1992-3, where the UN and USA got involved, and left after sparking off a battle in the streets of the capital city, leaving more than a thousand Somalis dead, (also hundreds of UN dead, and a little more than a dozen US soldiers dead.) So, people are opposed to having Western peacekeepers here, but it goes deeper.


Somalia is a Muslim society, and the majority of the other surrounding states, are not. There are large populations of Muslims in all these countries, but the Governments sometimes are Christian based. The religious leaders don’t want non-Muslim troops helping out here. There is more.


There are many people making substantial amounts of money in this society. There are no formal taxes, port authorities, radio licenses, etc. As such, some smart businessmen are making a lot of money. Some strong people with the help of militias are making a lot of money. Some smart people with medical degrees, working in areas without regulations, are making a lot of money. And the Government may change all that. (You may ask what is all this wealth doing in Somalia? Well, the not-so-smart, or not-so-strong, or not-so-businesslike-minded, live quietly, and die quietly, as objections to the wealthy aren’t tolerated.) For the Government to come to power, it needs the support of all these powers-that-be, but to get support from the powers, the Government needs to show it is a worthwhile thing to have; tricky position to be in.


People opposed to the Government. Other people opposed to peacekeeping troops from Ethiopia. Other people opposed to any foreign peacekeeping troops. The Government has much work to do.

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Yesterday, Feb 9th, we had a rumour of a journalist being injured (unsuccessfully targeted) in Mogadishu. It is thought this is related to the opposition to foreign troops coming in.


So, I would say that tensions have risen a little. Maybe just the impression of tensions has risen, but all the indicators of tension rising are just normal things, coincidentally happening at the same time. Regardless, we keep an eye out, an ear out, and heads down. The National Staff say there is no problem at the security meeting this morning. Maybe I’ll talk individually with some people today about things to get a more in depth opinion.


Fortunately though, we are in the stable province of Puntland. Puntland is the province on the top Northeast Corner of Somalia, extending down to Galcayo. Puntland, under the leadership of (current Somalia President) Yusuf (and the support of the Ethiopian Government) has been very stable, sporting its own government, and police force. Also, since the population in Puntland is all from the same tribe, it enjoys more security than other divided sections of Somalia. There is limited influence from more extremist Islamic groups as well. The tensions in the south, in Mogadishu, are not here in Galcayo. People in Puntland, mostly, embrace the Federal Government, as they have embraced the Puntland Authorities.


Enough for now, goodnight,

Lots of Love,

Steve